Some do, but most are found by people. In two US studies, roughly 8 to 20 percent of dogs got home unaided, so search while someone waits at the house.
Some do, but do not plan around it
Yes, some lost dogs come home by themselves, but they are the minority. In a national ASPCA phone survey, 20 percent of recovered dogs returned on their own, while 49 percent were found by owners searching the neighborhood. In a study of lost pets in Dayton, Ohio, only 8 percent of lost dogs came home without help. So waiting is a reasonable job for one person, and a poor plan for the whole family. Put someone at the house, and send everyone else out to search and call shelters today.
Why the two numbers differ
The studies did not measure the same thing. The 20 percent figure is a share of 101 recovered dogs in a national survey. The 8 percent figure is a share of all lost dogs in one Ohio county, based on 187 reports. The ASPCA survey also let owners decide what lost meant, with no minimum time. Many of those dogs were lost more than once: of 107 dogs with data, about half had gone missing two or more times. A dog that roams and returns after an hour counts the same as one gone for a week. Neither study tells you how long the dogs that came home were gone.
Which dogs are more likely to return
No study has ranked this, so what follows is practitioner observation from Kat Albrecht of the Missing Animal Response Network, not measured fact. She describes three broad starts. A dog that wandered through an open gate, or left to follow a scent, tends to stay close and double back. A dog with wanderlust, often an intact male or a hound, has gone to look for something and may have done it before. A dog in blind panic from a noise or a crash can run far and fast, with no route in mind. The first two have a better chance of turning up on their own. The third is the one you should not wait for.
Make the house ready for a return
A dog that comes home may find nobody there and leave again. Keep one person at the house if you can, at least for the first day. Leave the yard gate as the dog knows it, as long as the yard is safe. Put a water bowl where the dog usually goes in, and a worn shirt or the dog’s bed beside it. Point a doorbell camera or a cheap motion camera at that spot, with phone alerts on. If you have to leave, tape a note to the door: If this dog is here, please do not chase it. Call this number now. Ask the neighbors on each side to watch your porch.
Do not let waiting delay the calls
Waiting has a cost that is easy to miss. A dog that does not come home by itself may end up in a shelter, and the clock there starts without you. In Dayton, 35 percent of recovered dogs were found at a shelter. Stray holds can be short: three days without ID in Lee County, Florida, and four business days including a Saturday in Oakland, California. Other places differ. So call animal control, nearby shelters and your microchip company in the first hours, even if you feel sure your dog will walk back in tonight. Calling costs nothing, and you can always cancel. Our post on who to call has the full order.
If your dog has done this before
A history of coming home is useful, but do not lean on it too hard. Think about where the dog went last time and how long it took, and go there first: the neighbor with the chickens, the park, the house with the other dog. Then ask what is different today. A dog that left in a storm, during a move, or in a new place is not on its usual outing. Age, weather and traffic may also have changed since last time. If the last return took two hours and this has gone past that, start the full search.
When your dog does walk back in
Do not scold it, even after a long fright, and do not open the door again until the gate or latch that failed is fixed. Look for limping, cuts and ticks, and call your vet if the dog seems off or has been gone overnight in bad weather. Then tell everyone. Call the shelters and the chip company, take down your posters, and mark your online posts as found, so volunteers can stop and nobody keeps reporting sightings. Keep the dog on a leash outdoors for a while, even in your own yard.
Sources
Weiss, Slater and Lord, Animals, 2012: pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4494319. Lord et al., Dayton, Ohio study: news.osu.edu/lost-dogs-found-more-often-than-lost-cats-study-suggests. Missing Animal Response Network, Lost Dog Behavior: missinganimalresponse.com/lost-dog-behavior. Lee County Animal Services: leefl.gov/animalservices/lostpet/foundpet. Oakland Animal Services: oaklandca.gov/Community/Pets-Animals/Lost-and-Found.